Comments on: “It’s the Economy, Stupid: TAKE TWO”

By: UP@NIGHT, Right Again (Prediction Record) « UP@NIGHT

UP@NIGHT, Right Again (Prediction Record) « UP@NIGHT — Sat, 26 Dec 2009 04:31:33 +0000

[...] It’s the Economy, Stupid: TAKE TWO August 21, 2008 [Obama will win the election if he concentrates on the economy and doesn't allow McCain to focus on foreign affairs] [...]

By: Mitchell Aboulafia

Mitchell Aboulafia — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 18:34:19 +0000

Cute and fun, but not exactly what one would call scientific. Btw, once Obama supporters find out about this site, I predict that the results are going to change radically. A lot more people want to bop McBush in my view.

On a more serious note, I have often mentioned that head to head polls are not predictive at this stage of the game, that is, pre-convention. One has to look at the what the polls are showing about what is going on in the voters’ minds See “Media Hype and Election Polls (or the sky is falling)” on this site.

But for what it is worth, the day after Obama announced Biden as his running mate, here is the report from Rasmussen. These are three day tracking polls.

“On Sunday—the day before the Democratic National Convention begins–the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 45%. This is the first time Obama has been up by more than two percentage points with leaners since his “Berlin bounce” began to fade on July 28 (see recent daily results).” http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

By: acarponzo

acarponzo — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 12:56:50 +0000

here is the website for the above poll

Http://www.bop-o-rama.com

By: acarponzo

acarponzo — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 12:56:06 +0000

Interesting poll numbers. But take a look at this real-time open poll. How do you figure these numbers? Is the “Hillary Effect” going to submarine Team Obama/Biden. Yesterday, if there was a “Biden Bounce,” at this poll it went the wrong way. Your Bops Realy Count!!!