Remember when we heard about Biden as a one-term president, who wished to hand the reins to a new generation? I do. But the Democratic leadership appears to have forgotten why the one-term issue mattered. It was part of the electability discussion. Rightly or wrongly, Biden was already viewed as pushing the limit in terms of age/ability in the eyes of most Americans, and the one-term promise was seen by some as a way to placate those worried about an octogenarian president.
Former Vice President Joe Biden’s top advisers and prominent Democrats outside the Biden campaign have recently revived a long-running debate whether Biden should publicly pledge to serve only one term, with Biden himself signaling to aides that he would serve only a single term.
While the option of making a public pledge remains available, Biden has for now settled on an alternative strategy: quietly indicating that he will almost certainly not run for a second term while declining to make a promise that he and his advisers fear could turn him into a lame duck and sap him of his political capital.
According to four people who regularly talk to Biden, all of whom asked for anonymity to discuss internal campaign matters, it is virtually inconceivable that he will run for reelection in 2024, when he would be the first octogenarian president.
“If Biden is elected,” a prominent adviser to the campaign said, “he’s going to be 82 years old in four years and he won’t be running for reelection.” “Biden signals to aides that he would serve only a single term,” Politico, 12/11/19.
Perhaps it was all a scam. No adviser actually believed he wasn’t going to run, but they knew it was the proper thing to say in terms of the electability question. As far as I know, Biden never formally promised not to run, but I have little doubt that most Americans had hoped that the words of his campaign adviser were true: “he won’t be running for reelection.”
Fast-forward to 2023. The country as a whole doesn’t want Biden. Full stop. The polls couldn’t be any clearer. Even a slim majority of Democrats think it best if he doesn’t run.
A new NBC News poll found that 60 percent of Americans think Trump shouldn’t try to retake the Oval Office — including roughly a third of Republicans. Thirty percent of those who think he shouldn’t campaign in 2024 cite the criminal charges he faces in New York as a “major” reason.
At the same time, 70 percent of Americans think Biden shouldn’t seek a second term — including 51 percent of Democrats. Forty-eight percent of those who said he shouldn’t run again cited his age as a “major” reason.
The latest results are in line with other polls indicating low enthusiasm for either Trump or Biden as they ready for what could be a 2020 rematch. “Majorities don’t want Biden, Trump to run in 2024: survey,” The Hill, 4/23/2023.
In addition, the American people are extremely negative about the direction of the country, and the Biden White House has been unable to counter this sentiment.
Seventy-one percent of Americans in our latest NBC News poll saying the country is headed in the wrong direction. It is the eighth time in the last nine NBC News surveys dating back to Oct. 2021 when the wrong track has been above 70%. The one exception was in Sept. 2022, when it was 68%.
The NBC News’ poll has never before recorded this level of sustained pessimism in the 30-year-plus history of the poll. That includes the 1992 recession, when a year of NBC/WSJ polls had the wrong track between 67% and 71% before improving right after the presidential election. . . .
What’s more, when our poll asked respondents how they feel about where America is headed over the next year, 69% gave negative words and phrases, versus 23% who had positive ones.
That’s a change from two years ago, right before President Biden’s inauguration, when just 52% had negative words and phrases on this question. “Poll finds 71% of Americans believe country is on wrong track,” WMTV, 1/30/23.
To repeat: “The NBC News’ poll has never before recorded this level of sustained pessimism in the 30-year-plus history of the poll.”
What sane party would bet on a candidate with the kind of poll numbers we are seeing? Short answer: none. To make matters worse, the strategy of the Democrats involves emphasizing the legislative accomplishments of the Biden administration. Unfortunately, Americans simply don’t pay much attention to Congressional legislation, unless it’s a monumental, history-making, piece of legislation, or it is going to affect them directly. Given this, not only do you have to sell the American public on Biden, who doesn’t present as an especially vigorous 80 year old—people age differently—you have to do so by convincing them that his legislative accomplishments are significant enough to warrant a second term. Tactically, this puts you at a disadvantage. You not only have to sell your candidate. You have to convince people about the merits of legislation that doesn’t touch enough of them directly, and then use this legislation as an argument to re-elect someone they think shouldn’t have a second term. Salesmanship 101 would tell you that you are holding a bad hand.
Ah, but the Democratic leadership isn’t worried, or if they are, they keep pretty mum about it. Nothing to see here. All good. They are eagle-eyed, focusing on 2024, and they have an ace in the hole, Donald Trump, if people are unpersuaded by Biden’s legislative accomplishments. But what will they say in 2028 when they won’t have Trump to kick around?
Perhaps Biden will help move monumental new legislation through Congress between now and 2028, legislation that will make people look up and say, Biden was great. The Democrats were great. Let’s elect another Democrat to the White House. Gotta love them Dems.
Reality check. Do you see the Democrats winning the Senate and the House by significant numbers in the next two elections? I don’t. Not with the way the country is gerrymandered. So, while the future remains unpredictable, the odds are pretty high that we won’t see any legislation more significant than what Biden helped pass his first two years, and likely not as significant. Grand new legislation is not going to come to the rescue. (And bipartisan Joe is not someone you want to have with you in a Congressional knife fight.)
But then there is the ace in the hole: another Trump-like figure to run against. (Man, if we could only run against Hitler or Attila the Hun.) But can we count on someone as awful as Trump in 2028, or more to the point, will it even matter? The electorate gave Trump the White House in part because they were frustrated with the Washington establishment. Many voters will not have forgotten how they were forced to vote for Biden because establishment Democrats didn’t give them another choice. Imagine who angry anti-establishment voters might be ready to elect in 2028 after four more years of Biden. They could go with someone worse than a DeSantis, for example, an extreme right-wing populist with charisma. Nightmares are made of such stuff.
Biden is a bad hand for the Dems. What do you do with a bad hand? You don’t double-down. You don’t risk the country on bluff. You fold and wait for new cards. In this case, the new cards are Democrats with enough guts (and potential national visibility) to take on the party leadership and say, you are risking too much here. We won’t accept it. We will run.
Don’t hold your breath. Don’t expect many profiles in courage. Democratic politicians are mainly careerists, who prioritize party and their political ambitions. Just like most politicians in the other party. Stay in tune and play ball if you want to advance.
And please don’t tell us about all of the ways that the Democratic Party is different from the GOP. On this, it’s same old, same old. Party on……
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Biden portrait: Created on ChatGPT, with various prompts from UP@NIGHT.
UP@NIGHT 
and here we are…