I have grown increasingly frustrated as the day has worn on. I keep seeing supporters, especially of Senator Clinton, referring to recent polls as evidence that she is more electable. The fact is that we don’t know who is more electable right now because there are simply too many variables, which will be cashed out in different ways in the months ahead. One thing is fairly certain, given the mixed and changing results in snapshot state and national polls, the Democrats would be foolish to select a candidate based on them.

Further, in spite of what we hear from the Clinton people, there is no such thing as a national popular vote. Too many apples and oranges. There are caucus and non-caucus states. There are states that have included independents and those that haven’t. Some have allowed party cross-overs and some have not. These election results can’t be combined into one figure, and especially not into a figure that will satisfy everyone. Bottom Line: if the Democrats back off from using the delegate count in nominating their candidate, and try to substitute a bogus national popular vote, they will be courting calamity. (Few believe that such a substitution will actually take place. But as long as people keep talking about a popular vote, it pushes closure off into the horizon.)

If one must have some numbers at this time, the odds are that the results from Intrade are probably more accurate than any snapshot poll. Of course Intrade isn’t always accurate and its traders change their minds. But it has a pretty good record. Interestingly, in the face of all of the current polls, as of 12:00 AM, May 23rd, the traders think that Obama is going to beat McCain.   http://www.intrade.com/
Notice that there have been hundreds of thousands of trades, that is, “bets.”

The figures are in the following order: Bid, Ask, Last, Vol, Chge
Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election 57.3, 57.4, 57.3, 157381, +0.9

McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election 38.1, 38.3, 38.2, 202761, -1.8

Clinton to win 2008 US Presidential Election 5.8, 6.7, 6.8, 294285, +1.0

2 thoughts

  1. Snapshot Polls and the Popular Vote: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

    The tampering with the polls in the past is the reason that the present polls are carefully examined to avoid such manipulations again. However, Obama will win fair and square. Hillary is experiencing difficulty with the polls, because someone must have told her that the fixation of the polls would pose her to win, apparently something went wrong, now the election is being held up to see what it is. What’s done in the dark have surfaced to the light. The polls are right.

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