Nostradamus  Vs.  UP@NIGHT No Contest

It has been over a year and a half since I began UP@NIGHT and my career as a pundit, for lack of a more refined label.  I suppose part of the challenge was to see how a philosopher by trade might do in the prediction business.  How I would stack up against the pundits in the media.  You know, mano a mano.

I thought that it would be fitting and fair to readers, and myself, to look at blogs in which I predicted the outcome of events in the political world to see if my track record was any good.  Low and behold, I discovered that if I had been a betting man, I could have made some good money.  So, without further ado, and no false modesty, here are the predictions.  Roll Over Nostradamus.

The titles are linked to the original blogs.

Correct Predictions:

It’s the Economy, Stupid: TAKE TWO,  August 21, 2008   (Obama will win the election if he concentrates on the economy and doesn’t allow McCain to focus on foreign affairs)
McCain Just Lost the Election with a Hail Mary (or Political Ambition 21, Country 0), August 29, 2008  (Posted the day that McCain picked Palin as his running mate.)
Why Obama and Paul Newman won the Debate, September 27, 2008   (Argues that contrary to what many pundits in the media claimed, Obama won the first debate and that he will win the election.)
Democrats To Pass Significant Health Care Reform,  October 18, 2009   (This blog argues that Democrats will not be stopped by a filibuster in the Senate and they will fall in line to pass significant legislation.  And yes, I am taking credit for this one even though the legislation is not signed by the president and people may be unsatisfied with it.   It’s pretty much a done deal.  And whether one likes it or not, it will bring about substantial change.  In any case, both houses have passed bills.  Reconciliation will come early next year, by February.)


Semi-correct, although not a exactly a prediction:

Obama, Spock, and the New Star Trek Nation, June 6, 2008.  (UP@NIGHT was one of the first blogs, if not the first, to make the connection between Obama and Spock on the Web.  It has now become a commonplace.)


Incorrect Predictions:

The Twelfth Cylon Revealed, May 30, 2008  (I claimed that McCain is the 12th and missing Cylon on the TV show Battlestar Gallactica.  I still hold to the proposition that he may prove to be a Cylon.  The new series should reveal the truth.)

It’s Going to be Webb for VP, Probably,  May 16, 2008


Still up in the air:

Obama’s Pragmatism (or Move over Culture Wars, Hello Political Philosophy), December 14, 2008; reposted April 7, 2009  (Argues that Obama is a philosophical pragmatist, not merely a political one, and that his approach will have an impact on the culture wars.  See also, Obama: Conservative, Liberal, or Ruthless Pragmatist?, May 7, 2009; Bronx on the Court, Empathy, and Obama’s Pragmatism, May 27, 2009.)

GOP, Inc. to be Permanently Downsized, January 30, 2009


Leaving aside the Cylon revelation, looks like UP@NIGHT was right about 90% of the time.    So I ask you, can you afford not to read UP@NIGHT?


[First posted December 26, 2009.  Reposted January 3rd, 2010 to start off the new year and add “Obama’s Pragmatism.” ]


UPDATE, January 22, 2010.

With the unexpected victory of Brown in Massachusetts I  am going to have to amend what I claimed above, namley, that health care will not be stopped by a filibuster in the Senate.  It wasn’t stopped, but now it would be.  Nevertheless, I am not pulling the original prediction about health care (yet).  The Democrats can’t afford not to pass it, which was the thrust of the original blog.  No one knows what form it will take at this juncture, or when it is going to happen, but the Democrats will get something they can crow about.

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